决策者情绪对应急决策的影响研究:一个理论框架  

Mechanism Study on How Decision-maker's Emotion Affects the Emergency Decision-making: A Theoretical Framework

作　　者：张云翌[1] 杨乃定[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学管理学院,西安710072 [2]陕西省应急管理学会,西安710072

出　　处：《情报杂志》2015年第10期65-70,共6页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"非常规突发事件下管理者情绪对应急决策的影响机制研究"(编号:71171162)阶段性成果

摘　　要：突发事件下,及时有效的应急决策是减少伤亡与损失的关键。然而突发事件所致的决策者情绪难免影响其应急决策行为,对突发事件的处置决策过程造成偏差或失误。本研究基于行为决策研究范式,建立决策者情绪影响应急决策全过程的理论框架模型,详细分析情绪对应急决策中线索搜寻、线索评估、备选方案形成、主观概率、风险后果感知、风险偏好、方案选择和决策结果等环节的影响,以及决策任务特征、环境特征和决策者特征对决策者情绪的影响作用。以期对突发事件应急处置过程中决策者行为和情绪管理提供理论参考。Timely and effective emergency decision-making is the key to reduce the casualties and losses caused by the emergency. However, emergency decision-making will be inevitably affected by the emergency decision-maker＇ s emotion, which may lead to serious decision failures in the emergency. This study firstly established the theoretical framework model of how the decision-maker＇s emotion may affect the emergency decision-making based on the behavioral decision-making paradigm. Secondly, it was analyzed and discussed in detail the impact of emotion on the subjective probability, risk perception, risk preference, clues searching, clues assessing, alternative scheme formation, scheme choosing and decision-making results during the decision-making process in the model. Moreover, it was also investigated how the decision-maker＇ s emotion was affected by environment characteristics, characteristics of decision-making task and the decision-maker characteristics in emergency decision-making. It is hoped to be a reference for the behavior and emotion management of emergency decision-makers.

关 键 词：突发事件 决策者情绪 应急决策 理论框架 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学] B84[哲学宗教—心理学]