基于多种群Lotka-Volterra的微博舆论竞争传播分析  

A Study on Competitive Spreading of Weibo Opinions Based on Multi-species Lotka-Volterra Model

作　　者：张亮[1] 任立肖[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津科技大学经济与管理学院,天津300222

出　　处：《情报杂志》2015年第10期112-116,共5页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目"Web2.0网络舆情的传播演化机制研究"(编号:12JYC860056)

摘　　要：针对多种微博舆论同时竞争传播的情形,提出了一种多种群Lotka-Volterra分析模型。影响某种微博舆论传播的因素包括它的当前舆论量、内生增长速度、潜在生长空间,以及其他微博舆论的竞争作用。根据竞争系数矩阵可以判断不同微博舆论之间的竞争模式,模型能够反映微博舆论多种观点竞争与协同的传播机制。用提出的模型分析了新浪微博"拐卖儿童判死刑"事件中的四种舆论的竞争形式,分析方法可以为复杂微博舆论的研判与管理提供有效依据。In this paper, a multi-species Lotka-Volterra model is proposed to describe the competitive spreading of multiple opinions in Weibo system. The spreading of a certain Weibo opinion is influenced by many factors including the current opinion volume, the inherent growth speed, the potential growth space, and the competition of other Weibo opinions. The patterns of competition can be observed from the competition coefficient matrix. The model proposed can explain the competitive and cooperative spreading mechanism of multiple Weibo opinions. Based on this model, the competitive patterns of four opinions in ＂death penalty for children traffickers＂ Weibo event are then analyzed. The proposed method provides an effective basis for judgment and management of complex Weibo opinions.

关 键 词：Lotka—Volterra模型 网络舆论 微博 竞争传播 传播动力学 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]