制度变迁、金融发展对区域经济增长影响的实证分析——基于浙江、陕西两省的VAR模型比较  

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Institutional Changes and Financial Development on Regional Economic Growth——Based on a Comparison of the VAR Models between Shaanxi and Zhejiang

作　　者：刘儒[1] 张杨[1] 董研林[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学马克思主义学院,西安710049 [2]西安交通大学文治书院,西安710049

出　　处：《情报杂志》2015年第10期201-206,F0003,195,共8页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"国际金融危机演变背景下市场与政府关系再研究"(编号:12XJL002);教育部人文社会科学一般项目"基于包容性增长的西部地区民营经济可持续发展研究"(编号:12YJA790088)

摘　　要：基于浙江、陕西两省1978-2012年的经济发展数据,运用向量自回归(VAR)方法,对制度变迁、金融发展和经济增长的动态关系进行实证分析,并在分析的基础上进行了协整检验、格兰杰因果检验以及脉冲响应分析。结果发现,浙江省的制度变迁、金融发展对经济增长率都有较大的影响,其中金融发展对经济增长率的影响比制度变迁的影响更大;虽然陕西省的制度变迁、金融发展对经济增长率的影响均不如浙江省的显著,但是就陕西本省来说,其金融发展对经济增长率的影响却大于制度变迁对经济增长率的影响。Applying VAR （ Vector Auto Regression Model）, this study presents an empirical analysis of the dynamic relation among institutional changes, financial development and economic growth based on the data of the economic growth of Zhejiang and Shaanxi provinces. A co-integration test, a Granger causality test and a pulse response analysis are also carried out on the basis of this empirical analysis. The results show that institutional changes and financial development of Zhejiang province have great effect on its economic growth rate, among which financial development has greater effect than institutional changes; while in Shaanxi province, the effect of institutional changes and financial development on economic growth rate is not as obvious as that in Zhejiang, but the effect of financial development is also greater than that of institutional changes.

关 键 词：制度变迁 金融发展 经济增长 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]