陆路交通建设对经济增长的影响——基于湖南省时间序列数据的VECM模型分析  

Effects of the Land Transportation Infrastructure on Economic Growth

作　　者：欧歆[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《长沙大学学报》2015年第5期68-73,共6页Journal of Changsha University

摘　　要：基于湖南省1979-2013年的统计数据,研究陆路交通建设和经济增长之间的影响关系.为了更精确地得到两者之间的相互关系和影响程度,主要采用VECM模型对国家统计局统计的时间序列数据进行分析.研究表明:长期来看,陆路交通建设和经济增长存在着均衡关系,且陆路交通建设对经济增长有积极作用;从短期的脉冲反应函数来看,公路建设对经济增长的影响和波动性均大于铁路建设,且两者对于经济增长都产生正向冲击.Based on the data of Hunan province from 1997 to 2013,this article researches the relationship between land transportation infrastructure and economic growth.In order to obtain more accurate results,the paper chooses the VECMmodel and national statistics to enhance the accuracy.The results show that land transportation infrastructure andeconomic growth have the equilibrium in the long term,and especially land transportation infrastructure has a positive effect on economic growth.Both road transportation infrastructure and railway transportation infrastructure show positive effects on economic growth;however,road transportation infrastructure has more effects and variability on economic growth than railway transportation infrastructure in the short term.

关 键 词：交通运输建设 VECM模型 脉冲反应函数 经济增长 

分 类 号：F540.31[经济管理—产业经济]