中国大陆2006—2012年人和牲畜布鲁氏菌病空间分布特征及相关性  

Spatial distribution characteristics and correlation of human and livestock brucellosis in China's Mainland,2006- 2012

作　　者：廖伟斌 孙建国[1,2] 于国伟[3] 雍万铃 田德红[4] 王熙蓓 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃省地理国情监测工程实验室 [3]西北民族大学环境健康研究所 [4]兰州大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2015年第10期1289-1293,共5页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：甘肃省科技计划资助项目(1308RJZA124);兰州交通大学科技支撑基金(ZC2012006)

摘　　要：目的 探讨中国大陆地区2006—2012年人和牲畜布鲁氏菌病（布病）疫情的空间分布特征及相关性,为采取相应的防制措施提供参考依据。方法 收集公共卫生科学数据中心2006—2012年中国法定报告传染病数据库中人布病疫情资料和农业部《兽医公报》中牲畜布病疫情资料,采用全局、局部空间自相关分析方法对2006—2012年人畜布病疫情数据进行分析。结果 中国大陆地区2006—2012年人间布病发病率由1.45/10万上升到2.93/10万,年发病率全局Moran＇s I指数为0.179 0-0.345 8,且均呈正相关（均P〈0.01）,有明显的聚集性;牲畜布病发病数在这一时期迅猛增加,由2 032头上升到82 071头,其中2010、2011、2012年全局Moran＇s I指数分别为0.164 3、-0.072 8、-0.0833（均P〈0.05）;单变量和双变量局部空间自相关结果均显示人畜布病疫情存在正相关关系,高聚集区集中在北方农牧区,低聚集区集中在南方非农牧区,疫情不断由北方向南方扩散。结论 人畜布病疫情均存在不同程度的聚集性,人间布病疫情聚集程度逐年上升,而牲畜布病发病数与空间自相关指数大小分布存在一定的差异性。Objective To explore the spatial distribution characteristics and correlation of human and livestock brucellosis in China's Mainland from 2006 to 2012, and to provide references for taking corresponding control measures. Methods Human brucellosis data were extracted from the database of reported notifiable infectious diseases in China published by China Public Health Science Data Center and the livestock brucellosis data from Official Veterinary Bulletin issued by Ministry of Agriculture of China. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were carded out based on the data for the years of 2006 to 2012. Results The overall incidence of human brucellosis increased from 1.45/100 000 to 2.93/100 000 during the period and the global Moran＇s I coefficients for the incidence ranged from 0. 179 0 to 0. 345 8 and were all positive（ all P 〈 0. 05 ）, suggesting a significant spatial clustering of the incidence; the number of livestock brucellosis increased from 2 032 to 82 071 during the same period,with the global Moran＇s I coefficients of 0. 164 3, -0. 072 8 ,and -0. 083 3（all P 〈0. 05） for the year of 2010,2011 ,and 2012. Both univadate and bivariate local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed a positive correlation between human and livestock brucellosis. The areas with high clustering of human brucellosis were observed in agricultural and pastoral regions in northern of China and the areas with low clustering in non-agricultural and non-pastoral regions in southern of China. Conclusion Human and livestock brucellosis present different patterns of spatial clustering; the degree of human brucellosis spatial clustering increases yearly, while the distribution of livestock brucellosis cases is not consistent to that of spatial autocorrelation coefficients of the diseases.

关 键 词：布鲁氏菌病(布病) 空间分布特征 相关性 人 牲畜 

分 类 号：R378.5[医药卫生—病原生物学]