基于Copula函数的长春市暴雨联合分布与特征分析  

Analysis of Joint Distribution and Characteristics of Rainstorm in Changchun Based on Copula Function

作　　者：郭恩亮 周沫[1] 张继权[1] 王永芳[1] 哈斯[1] 张峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学环境学院,东北师范大学自然灾害研究所,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第4期173-177,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201410200103);国家自然科学基金(41371495)

摘　　要：利用1951-2012年长春市逐日降水数据,选取历年暴雨量、暴雨量贡献率和年均暴雨强度为暴雨要素值,运用Archimedean Copula函数构建二维联合分布,并利用AIC和RMSE进行Copula函数参数的优度检验,确定适合暴雨要素的最优Copula函数,然后分析多要素联合后暴雨概率和重现期特征,研究表明：1广义极值分布对长春市暴雨要素的拟合效果最好,多要素联合中,Frank Copula和Clayton Copula适合反映多要素联合下暴雨发生的概率;2暴雨联合重现期主要集中在0~12年之间;暴雨要素值较小时,同现重现期较短,大致在0~50年之间,随着暴雨要素值的增大,同现重现期相应延长;两种重现期变化趋势一致,存在同步效应;3二维Copula联合可从多方面呈现暴雨要素间的内在信息,并且Copula函数种类的多样性为确定最优暴雨要素二维联合提供了可能,为Copula函数在暴雨要素联合中的运用提供了有利条件。Based on annual of rainstorm depth,annual average rainstorm intensity and rainstorm contribution of the daily precipitation data from 1951 to 2012 in Changchun city. We use AIC and RMSE test to confirm the best fitted copulas connect function suitable for rainstorm factor by introducing the Archimedean copula function and building two-dimensional joint distribution,and analyze the probability of rainstorm and characteristics of return period with many combined factors. Research shows that： 1The Generalized Extreme Value distribution is the best distribution for fitting rainstorm elements; For the joint of many factors,Frank copulas and Clayton copulas suitable for and reflecting the occurred probability rainstorm under the background of multiple-factor. 2Rainstorm joint return period are mainly concentrated in between 0- 12a; Storm factor value is smaller,with shorter return period,approximately between 0- 50a; along with the increase of rainfall factor value,concurrence return period also growth up. 3the univariate reflect just one factor of information in rainstorm and doesn＇t involved in the relationship between factors; Two-dimensional copulas joint can present the internal information between heavy elements from more aspects and closer to the actual; Multiple factors of rainstorm,as copulas function on the rainstorm analysis provides a broad prospects.

关 键 词：COPULA函数 二维联合 暴雨要素 重现期 吉林长春 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P648.024[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]