应用集中度和圆形分布法分析西安市2010-2013年手足口病的季节性特征  

Concentration and circular distribution-based analyses of the seasonal characteristics of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Xi'an City between 2010 and 2013

作　　者：刘继锋[1] 王文宇[2] 卓朋涛 李瑞雪[2] 王如玥[3] 郑淑予 王亚峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安市疾病预防控制中心,陕西西安710000 [2]西安交通大学医学院公共卫生学院,陕西西安710000 [3]四川农业大学经济管理学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2015年第20期3655-3657,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的探讨西安市手足口病流行的季节性特征,为制定防治策略和措施提供科学依据。方法应用集中度及圆形分布法分析西安市2010-2013年的手足口病月发病规律。结果西安市2010-2013年的手足口病季节性分布的总M值为0.534;手足口病发病平均高峰日为6月12日,流行高峰期为4月6日-8月19日。Rayleigh'test显示平均角存在(Z=21 670.92,P<0.001);M值与r值相关性显示M值和r值呈高度正相关(r=1.000,P<0.001)。结论西安市2010-2013年手足口病发病分布有较强的季节性分布特征,4-8月为该病的流行高峰,有关部门应在流行高峰期内开展有针对性的防控措施。Objective The objective of the study was to explore the seasonal characteristics of hand-foot-and-mouth disease（HFMD） in Xi＇an City, so as to provide a scientific reference for the development of prevention and control strategies and measures against HFMD. Methods Epidemic pattern among HFMD cases in Xi＇an City between 2010 and 2013 were analyzed by concentration and circular distribution methods. Results The overall M value of the seasonal distribution of HFMD was 0.534 in Xi＇an City between 2010 and 2013. The incidence was mainly reported between April 4thand August 19 thand peaked on June 12 th.Rayleigh test showed that an average angle is present（Z=21670.92, P〈0.001）; and correlation analysis indicated that M value was positively correlated with r value（r=1.000, P〈0.001）. Conclusion The distribution of HFMD incidence in Xi＇an City between 2010 and 2013 exhibits strong seasonal characteristics, with the peak season being April to August. The responsible departments should implement targeting prevention and control measures during the peak season.

关 键 词：手足口病 集中度法 圆形分布法 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]