移动操作系统市场发展预测研究  

Study on the Development of Mobile IOS Market

作　　者：任娟娟[1] 周水生[2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西工业职业技术学院汽车与物流学院,陕西咸阳712000 [2]西安电子科技大学,陕西西安710071

出　　处：《兰州石化职业技术学院学报》2015年第3期39-42,共4页Journal of Lanzhou Petrochemical Polytechnic

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(61179040)

摘　　要：为了探讨移动操作系统未来的市场占有率,在假设苹果公司不改变运营策略的情形下,用曲线拟合模型对IOS市场占有率进行了研究。建立了基于种群竞争的微分方程模型,通过模拟退火算法用全球移动操作系统的市场占有率数据确定了微分方程模型中的参数。模型的预测结果显示:未来几年IOS的市场占有率逐渐降低而安卓的市场占有率将逐渐增加;对于苹果公司采取开放授权策略的情形,通过问卷调查的方法,根据统计的调查结果估计了微分方程模型中的数据参数。预测结果显示:如果IOS在2014年采取开放授权的策略,市场占有率将逐渐增加,在2018年市场占有率会超过安卓。In order to explore the development of mobile operating systems by investigating their market share and the market share of IOS,this paper studies a curve fitting model.Then a differential equation model which is based on the 2 -species competition model is proposed.The parameters in the model are determined by simulated annea-ling algorithm,using the actual global mobile IOS market share data.Results show that in the case that IOS market share decreases constantly,then Android market share will increase;For the case of Apple’strategy,parameters in the differential equation model are evaluated by the results of the questionnaire survey.Prediction results show that if IOS is open in 2014,then its market share will increase constantly.In 2018,the market share of IOS will be higher than that of Android.

关 键 词：移动操作系统 种群竞争模型 曲线拟合模型 模拟退火算法 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]