协整视角下的我国电子商务业与快递业长期均衡关系分析  

Analysis of long-run equilibrium relationship between e-commerce industry and express industry from the perspective of cointegration

作　　者：汪军[1] 李龙[2] 贾让成[3] 

机构地区：[1]宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波315000 [2]宁波城市职业技术学院旅游学院,浙江宁波315000 [3]宁波卫生职业技术学院,浙江宁波315000

出　　处：《科技与管理》2015年第4期78-82,共5页Science-Technology and Management

摘　　要：电子商务业和快递业两大朝阳产业是否存在长期均衡关系,关系到未来2个产业的融合程度,更决定了未来发的发展方向。文章以误差修正模型(ECM)为基本工具,从协整的角度来探讨两者的长期均衡关系,并用脉冲效应函数分析检验结果的准确性。实证结果表明我国电子商务业和快递业存在长期均衡关系,两者存在协同发展的必然性。最后,文章提出了确保两大产业融合发展的几点可行性建议。The long-term equilibrium between e-commerce industry and express industry （two sunrise industries） is very important. It determines the extent that the future integration of the two industries, and, of course, their future development direction. Firstly, this paper takes error correction model （ECM） as a basic tool to explore long-run equilibrium relationship between the two industries from the perspective of cointegration. Then we analyze the accu- racy of the test results with pulse effect function. The empirical results show that there have a long-term equilibrium relationship between e-commerce industry and the express industry. Finally, the article proposes several feasible suggestions to make two industries integreate.

关 键 词：电子商务 快递业 ECM模型 协整 

分 类 号：F603[经济管理—产业经济]