汇率体系的政治经济学——“第二代”货币制度理论的贡献与局限  

The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regime:Contributions and Limitations of the“Second-generation”Theories of Monetary Systems

作　　者：陈超[1] 李响[2] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究院,福建厦门361005 [2]新加坡国立大学政治学系

出　　处：《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2015年第5期1-9,共9页Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)

摘　　要：为什么有的国家选择固定汇率制,而有的国家选择浮动汇率制?"第二代"货币制度理论从政治经济学的视角对这一问题给出了答案。近十年的相关先行研究,大致可分为"国家中心"与"社会中心"两大类分析框架。以国家为中心的分析框架,将汇率体系看作解决时间不一致性问题的一种承诺机制,并主张汇率体系是一国在世界经济中特定结构位置的产物。以社会为中心的分析,则主要包括三种理论模型:制度-选举模型、党派模型与部门模型。超越"三元悖论"、重新反思资本流动性问题、打破完全信息假设,则是迈向"第三代"理论的努力方向。Why do some countries choose a fixed exchange rate regime while others choose a flexible one？ From the perspective of political economy, the ＂second-generation＂theories of monetary systems have given answers to this question. After reviewing studies conducted in the past ten years of this issue, we find that researchers have mainly followed either a state-centered analytical framework or a society-centered analytical framework; the former sees exchange rate system as a commitment mechanism that solves the problem of time inconsistency as well as a product of a nation＇s particular position in the global economy while the latter consists of three theoretical models, i.e. the institutional-electoral model, the partisan model and the sector model. This paper argues that theorists on monetary systems should go beyond the ＂Tri-theoretical Paradox＂, rethink the fluid nature of capital and problems arising from this nature, and break down the limitations of the complete information hypothesis, thereby making an effort to formulate a ＂third-generation＂ theory of monetary systems.

关 键 词：汇率体系 国家中心 社会中心 货币政策自主性 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]