国际转基因大豆对中国大豆产业及其期货市场的影响  

Effects of International Genetically Modified Soybean on China's Soybean Industry and Its Futures Market

作　　者：郑金英[1] 翁欣[2] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学经济学院 [2]北京大学汇丰商学院

出　　处：《亚太经济》2015年第5期39-46,共8页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

摘　　要：受到国际转基因大豆的冲击,1996年以后中国从大豆净出口国变成为大豆净进口国,2014年大豆对外依存度高达85.41%。首先通过介绍跨国公司转基因大豆技术对我国大豆产业的冲击,揭示了我国大豆在全球现货市场上缺乏定价权;其次通过向量自回归模型(VAR)、Granger因果分析、脉冲检验和方差分解等计量方法,实证分析了中国大豆在全球大豆期货市场上也缺乏定价权,最后提出我国大豆产业应对国际转基因大豆冲击的政策建议。Due to the impact of international genetically modified soybeans, China has become a net im- porter of soybeans since 1996. In 2014, about 85.41% of the soybeans in China are imported. This paper aims to investigate the effect of genetically modified soybean technology on China＇s food security from spot and future markets respectively. First, this paper reviews the impact of genetically modified soybean technology on soybean industry in China, revealing the lack of pricing power of China in the global spot market. Next, this paper uses vector auto regression model （VAR）, Granger causality analysis, impulse test and variance decomposition to analyse the relationship between domestic and international soybeans futures markets. The empirical analysis also suggests the lack of pricing power of China in futures market. Finally, this paper gives some policy recommendations for the impact of genetically modified soybeans.

关 键 词：转基因大豆 大豆期货 定价权 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]