农业技术进步、新型城镇化与农村剩余劳动力转移——基于“推拉理论”和省际动态面板数据的实证研究  

Agricultural Technology Process,New-urbanization and Transference of Redundant Rural Labor Force——Empirical Research Based on the“Push-pull Theory”and Inter-provincial Dynamic Panel Data

作　　者：李斌[1] 吴书胜[1] 朱业[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《财经论丛》2015年第10期3-10,共8页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家软科学研究计划重大项目(2011GXS1B001);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-12-0174)

摘　　要：本文以"推拉理论"为基础,构建包含农业技术进步、新型城镇化和农村剩余劳动力转移在内的计量模型,利用1998-2012年省际动态面板数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明,农业技术进步形成的"推力"和新型城镇化形成的"拉力"对促进农村剩余劳动力向城镇非农产业转移有显著作用,农业技术进步的"推力"由大到小依次为西部、东部和中部,而城镇化的"拉力"由大到小依次为中部、西部和东部。This paper builds an econometric model which contains agricultural technology progress, new-urbanization and transference of redundant rural labor force, and makes an empirical test based on ＂push-pull theory＂ by using 1998 -2012 an- nual inter-provincial dynamic panel data. National study shows the ＂push＂ from agricultural technology progress and the ＂pull＂ from new-urbanization have a significant promotion role for the shift of rural surplus labor to urban non-agricultural in- dustries. Sub-regional study shows that the ＂push＂ from agricultural technology progress in descending order is western, east- ern and central and the ＂pull＂ from new-urbanization in descending order is central, western and eastern.

关 键 词：农业技术进步 新型城镇化 农村剩余劳动力转移 推拉理论 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]