基于FTA的输油管道凝管失效可能性研究  

Research of Failure Probability of Congelation in Oil Pipeline Based on FTA

作　　者：张振兴[1] 成庆林[1] 孙巍[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北石油大学提高油气采收率教育部重点实验室,黑龙江大庆163318

出　　处：《化工设备与管道》2015年第5期58-61,共4页Process Equipment & Piping

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51174042);国家自然科学基金项目(51534004);东北石油大学研究生创新科研项目资助(YJSCX2015-009NEPU)

摘　　要：根据凝管事故进行统计和分析,确定了引起凝管的最直接原因是停输管道再启动失败和管道运行进入不稳定工作区两方面。并且依据建立故障树的基本原则,选择将"输油管道凝管失效"作为故障树的顶事件。总结了17个基本事件,使用下行法对输油管道凝管失效故障树进行分析,得出故障树的全部15个最小割集,利用最小割集原理对凝管失效故障树进行定性分析,结合改进的专家判断法确定了引起凝管失效的主要影响因素,并针对不同问题提出了相应的解决办法。发生的各基本事件的发生概率,利用最小割集计算故障树顶上事件发生概率,通过概率重要度分析法计算基本事件的概率重要度。Based on the analysis and statistics results, the direct causes of congelation in pipline were determined, which were loss in restart of transmission pipeline and unstable performance in pipeline. With basic principle of building fault tree, failure induced from the congelation in pipeline was selected as the top in fault tree. 17 basic events were selected. The fault tree of congelation in pipeline was analyzed by using descending method, and all of 15 minimum cut sets of fault tree were determined. Then, making use of minimum set principle, the fault tree of congelation in pipeline was analyzed, and combined with the experiences of experts, the main factors causing the failure of congelation were determined. With respect to different existed problems, relevant solving methods were finally provided.

关 键 词：凝管 故障树 定性分析 定量分析 概率重要度 

分 类 号：TQ050.7[化学工程] TH17[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]