区域物流园区建设规模预测分析  

Analysis on Forecast of Construction Scale of Regional Logistic Park Area

作　　者：邹欣[1] 汲昌霖[2] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学管理科学学院,四川成都610059 [2]山东大学经济研究院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2015年第10期11-16,22,共7页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学重点项目(12AJL010)

摘　　要：在阐述四川省物流产业发展概况的基础上,通过选取四川省?2000—2013年货物运输量数据,根据货运总量的实际值、线性拟合值及二次曲线拟合值,采用三次指数平滑法预测四川省?2020?年的物流总量,采用改进参数法对四川省?2020?年的物流园区建设规模进行预测,为四川省区域物流园区规划和建设工作提供数据支持。Based on expounding development status of logistic industry in Sichuan, through selecting the data of freight transport volume in 2000—2013 in Sichuan, according to the actual values, linear fitted values and conic fitted values of freight transport total volume, this paper forecasts the logistic total volume in Sichuan in 2020 by using third exponential smoothing method, and based on it, the paper makes forecast on the construction scale of logistic park area in 2020 in Sichuan by using improved parametric method, which provide data support for the planning and construction works of regional logistic park in Sichuan.

关 键 词：物流园区 规模预测 指数平滑法 改进参数法 

分 类 号：F259.22[经济管理—国民经济]