中国工业景气指数构建与分析  

The Construction and Analysis of China's Industry Prosperity Index

作　　者：张艳芳[1] 江飞涛[1] 谭运嘉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100836

出　　处：《河北经贸大学学报》2015年第6期82-87,共6页Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程项目"中国工业经济运行形势分析"(06BJY163)

摘　　要：目前,我国工业和主要工业行业周期性运行特征的研究及运行态势的监测和预测明显不足。利用时差相关分析等方法,从我国工业运行相关的经济指标中筛选出我国工业经济运行的先行指标和一致指标,利用合成指数方法构建我国工业部门的景气指数,对我国工业经济运行态势进行季度比较分析,结果表明我国工业经济运行的整体趋势良好并将继续保持稳健上行,但在保持上行趋势的过程中不可避免地会出现局部循环波动。At present, China＇s industry and the monitoring and forecast of the main industry cycle operation characteristics and operation situation are obviously deficiencies. By using the methods of time difference correlation analysis, from the industrial operation related economic indicators selected leading indicators of economic operation of the industry in our country and the indicators, using the method of synthetic index to build China＇s industrial sector sentiment, quarterly assessment of China＇s industrial economic operation situation analysis, the results show that the overall trend of China＇s industrial economic operation is good and will continue to maintain the steady upward, but in the process of maintain the upward trend will inevitably appear local cycle fluctuation.

关 键 词：工业景气指数 先行指标 一致指标 合成指数法 HP滤波法 美国一般商情指数 时差相关系数分析法 经济周期波动 

分 类 号：F402.4[经济管理—产业经济]