对“S型曲线”城市化理论的再讨论  

Discussion on "S curve" Theory of Urbanization

作　　者：段辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]曲靖师范学院,云南曲靖655000

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2015年第10期119-123,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2014C133Y)

摘　　要：S型曲线对城市化水平与速度关系的模拟,是该曲线应用的众多领域之一。文章以S型曲线的数学模型为基础,对S型曲线的阶段划分进行了细致的梳理,详尽讨论了作为S型曲线的推论存在的倒U型城市化速度曲线的特征;对S型曲线最为重要的假设条件——不变的城乡人口增长率差(URGD)进行了拓展,分析了在线性下降及倒U型URGD假定下S型曲线及城市化速度曲线所发生的变化;探讨了不同城市化水平起点与终点假定下S型曲线的形状差异,主要从乡城人口迁移的拉力与推力角度分析了S型曲线形成的原因。利用中国近60年的数据与S型曲线进行比照,发现中国的城市化进程大致呈现出S型曲线的特征,但城市化速度转折点推迟了5年左右,目前处于减速增长阶段。The simulation of the relationship between urbanization level and speed through S Curve model is one of the most frequ- ently applied areas in different fields. Based on the mathematical model of S Curve, the article combed the stage division of S type curve, discussed the characteristics of the urbanization speed curve. As the inference of S type curve suggests, the speed curve is inverted U-shaped. The Article expanded the most important assumption of S type curve the same rural-urban population growth rate differential expansion（URGD）, analyzed the change of S type curve and urbanization speed curve caused by falling in linear pattern and inverted u-shaped URGD, as well as differences of S type curves caused by different starting and end point of urbanization level. The causes of the formation of S type curve are also analyzed, mainly from the perspective of rural-urban migration, which is the result of push and pull. A comparison between s-shaped curve and Chinese data in recent 60 years shows that China＇s urbanization process roughly displays the characteristics of S type curve, but the speed of urbanization turning point has delayed 5 years or so. At present, China is in the slow growth stage of urbanization.

关 键 词：S型曲线 城乡结构 城乡移民 城乡经济 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]