填海造地对沿海地区经济发展和就业拉动的贡献探析  

Exploration and Analysis of the Sea Reclamation′s Contribution to the Regional Economic Development and Employment Stimulation

作　　者：谭论[1] 王倩[1] 张宇龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋信息中心,天津300171

出　　处：《海洋经济》2015年第3期48-54,共7页Marine Economy

摘　　要：首先以2003—2012年填海造地统计数据为对象,采用相关分析、柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和贡献度指标等方法,分析填海造地与沿海地区经济发展的相关性,测度填海造地对沿海地区经济发展的贡献度水平,并对初次结果进行修正,最终计算的填海造地对沿海地区经济增长的贡献度为4.56%。然后运用交叉相关验证填海造地与沿海地区就业的相关性,进而采用奥肯定律估算沿海地区的填海造地拉动就业水平,得到2008—2012年5年间填海造地拉动就业约98万人,并通过计算沿海地区填海造地拉动就业业绩指数,修正了奥肯定律的估算结果。At first, by using the correlation analysis, Cobb Douglas production functionand contribution index methods, and with the statistical data of reclamation in 2003-2012as object, we analyzed the correlation of sea reclamation to the development of regionaleconomy, and measured the contributive level of reclamation to the economic development.After the initial results have been revised, the finally calculated contribution ofreclamation to the regional economy was 4.56%. Then, using the cross correlation, thispaper verified the correlation between coastal areas＇ reclamation and employment; and,estimated the level of land reclamation promoting the employment in coastal areas, whichwas 980 thousand people in 5 years; and lately, the estimated results were corrected usingthe performance index.

关 键 词：填海造地 区域经济 就业 业绩指数 贡献 相关性 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]