黔中调水工程水源区与受水区丰枯遭遇分析  

Synchronous-asynchronous Encounter Probability of Rich-poor Precipitation between Water Source Areas and Water Receiving Areas of the Water Transfer Projects in Guizhou

作　　者：吴辉明[1,2] 宋万祯[3,2] 雷晓辉[2] 舒栋才 许浩[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京1000222 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [3]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072 [4]贵州省水文水资源局,贵阳550004

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2015年第9期22-26,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：贵州省重大科技项目“黔中岩溶山区水资源可持续利用关键技术研究”(黔科合重大专项专题[2012]6013-6号)

摘　　要：针对黔中调水工程的水源区和受水区的丰枯遭遇对工程水量调度方案的制定有重要影响,运用Copula方法构造了黔中调水工程水源区与各受水区全年降雨量的联合分布,并用所建模型对水源区与各受水区,受水区与受水区之间的丰枯遭遇进行了研究。通过Copula函数方法与传统统计法对比,2种方法计算可得水源区和受水区丰枯组合中对调水有利的概率均大于75%,但统计法计算精度与样本序列长度有关,而Copula函数方法刚好能弥补这方面的不足,同时在计算连续概率方面更有优势。结果证明运用Copula函数方法来描述黔中调水工程不同水文区的丰枯遭遇问题是可行的。The rich-poor encounter between water resources area and water receiving areas have an important effect on the formulation of scheduling scheme in Guizhou＇s water diversion projects .The method of Copula is used to construct the joint distribution of the water sources area and the water receiving area of annual rainfall of adjustable Central Guizhou ,and the model is used to study the rich-poor encounter rainfall between the water sources area and the water receiving areas and in different water receiving areas .The results show that ,by using the method of Copula and compared with the traditional statistics ,the combination of water runoff was greater than 75% ,but the statistical method of calculating the precision associated with sample sequence length ,and the Copula method of Copula makes up for this deficiency and in the calculation of the continuous probability of more advantages ,the results prove that using the method of Copula to describe the different hydrological regions in water transfer project in Guizhou runoff en‐countering problem is feasible .

关 键 词：黔中调水 丰枯遭遇 频率分析 COPULA 水源区 受水区 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]