科技期刊参考文献数量与部分引证指标的定量关系初探  

Preliminary analysis of quantitative relationship between the number of references and citation indexes for Chinese sci-tech journals

作　　者：葛赵青[1] 苗凌[1] 赵大良[1] 杜秀杰[1] 荆树蓉[1] 赵炜[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学学报编辑部,西安710049

出　　处：《编辑学报》2015年第5期423-425,共3页Acta Editologica

摘　　要：针对目前相关研究缺乏定量分析的现状,探讨中国科技期刊参考文献数量与总被引频次、影响因子的定量关系。根据《中国科技期刊引证报告》2000—2013年的相关统计数据,拟合出相应的关系曲线及公式,分析篇均引文数与平均总被引频次、篇均引文数与平均影响因子的关系和变化趋势。结果表明:篇均引文数与平均总被引频次呈现较好的线性关系;篇均引文数与平均影响因子呈现比较理想的三次多项式关系;拟合曲线与统计数据吻合良好。根据这2个拟合公式进行预测,当篇均引文数达到20时,中国科技核心期刊的平均总被引频次有望超过1 700,平均影响因子有望超过1.0。根据预测结果,如果篇均引文数能在现有基础上提高26%,则平均总被引频次有可能提高44%,平均影响因子有可能提高90%。To quantitatively analyze the relation between the average number of references and citation indexes such as the average citation frequency and impact factor for Chinese scientific and technical jom＇nals, the corresponding data during the period 2000 to 2013 are collected from the Chinese S ＆ T Journal Citation Reports to fit the average citation frequency-number of references curve and the average impact factor-average number of references curve to analyze their relations and varying trends. It is shown that the average citation frequency varies linearly with the average number of references, the average impact factor changes following a fitted cubic polynomial, and the corresponding linear and cubic polynomial curves coincide well with the statistical data from the Chinese S ＆ T Journal Citation Reports. Prediction based on the fitted linear formula and the cubic polynomial indicates that if the average number of references reaches 20, the average citation frequency may reach 1 700, and the average impact factor may reach 1. 0. This study suggests that if the average number of references increases by 26%, the average citation frequency may rise by 44% , and the average impact factor may rise by 90%.

关 键 词：科技期刊 参考文献 总被引频次 影响因子 定量关系 

分 类 号：G237.5[文化科学] G353.1