基于最小二乘法的改进的Logistic人口模型  

An Improved Method of the Least Squares Logistic Population Model

作　　者：李苑[1] 杨陈陈 王雪峰[1] 沈世云[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆邮电大学理学院,中国重庆400065

出　　处：《科技视界》2015年第31期7-9,共3页Science & Technology Vision

摘　　要：人口变化对社会发展有着直接的影响。人口增长率是研究人口增长的重要指标之一,人口增长的预测对人口政策的制定有着非常重要的作用。本文在有关人口的理论知识基础上,根据中国1971年-2014年人口数据,基于最小二乘法的改进的Logistic模型,分别建立模型来预测中国人口的增长趋势,并将预测的函数曲线与真实数据进行比较,得到较好的结果。利用曲线拟合的理论,采用MATLAB软件得到阻滞函数,再用Logistic模型来预测中国人口。结合我国人口低出生率、人口老龄化等问题,国家调整决定开放二胎政策,以期将我国人口调整为更加合理的发展方向。Population change of future social development has a direct impact. The population growth rate is an important indicator of research and population growth, population growth has a very important role in the formulation of population policies. In this paper, based on the theoretical knowledge of the relevant population, according to the 1971 to 2014 population data, Chinese population Logistic model based on the theory of differential equations, respectively model to predict the growth trend of China＇s population. And predictable function curve and real data to get better results. Using the theory of curve fitting using the MATLAB software block function, and then the Logistic model predicted that China＇s population. Combined with the problem of the low birth rate and aging population,China decide to adjust the policy of opening a second child to make our country become better.

关 键 词：人口增长 LOGISTIC模型 曲线拟合 

分 类 号：O141.4[理学—数学]