城市规模与中国城镇适龄青年个体结婚概率  

City Size and the Individual Marring Probability of Marriageable-age Youths in Urban China

作　　者：范红忠[1] 李名良[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2015年第5期94-103,128,共10页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"城镇间的真实差距与我国城镇化研究"(编号:13BJL056)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：文章基于2002和2007年中国农村和城市居民家庭收入分配调查(CHIP)微观数据,实证分析了城市规模对中国适龄青年结婚概率的影响。结果发现,城市规模扩大对中国城镇适龄青年结婚概率有显著的负面影响,2007年城市规模增大1%,中国城镇适龄青年结婚概率下降0.105个百分点。城市规模对中国城镇男性适龄青年结婚概率的影响强度大于女性,2007年城市规模增大1%,女性结婚概率下降0.098个百分点,而男性结婚概率下降0.146个百分点。城市规模对适龄青年结婚概率的影响强度有随时间增大的趋势。Based on the microcosmic data of Chinese Household Income Project(CHIP) 2002 and 2007,this paper analyzes the impact of city size on the marring probability among marriageable-age youths in China.The results show that the expansion of city size has a significant negative effect on the marring probability of China's marriageable youth.Every 1%increase in the size of city leads the marring probability to fall by 0.105%in 2007.The degree of this impact on the marring probability is greater for the male than for the female.The city size increased by 1%,the marring probability of marriageable women fell by 0.098%.while the marring probability of marriageable men fell by 0.146%in 2007.The degree of this impact on the probability of marriage had a tendency to increase with time.

关 键 词：城市规模 结婚概率 PROBIT模型 

分 类 号：D432.6[政治法律—政治学] D669.1[政治法律—国际共产主义运动]