我国耕地非农化的驱动因素研究  

The Analysis of Drivers of Our Country's Cultivated Land Conversion

作　　者：叶宇航[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《科学决策》2015年第9期33-50,共18页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(项目编号:08AJY034);中央高校基本科研业务资金专项项目(项目编号:SWJTU11CX103)

摘　　要：以耕地非农化为表现的农地生产结构变迁是引发我国现实粮食安全风险和城乡空间结构失序的根本诱因。通过梳理理论界对影响我国耕地非农化的驱动因素的主流观点,文章构建了适用于我国国情的耕地非农化驱动因素体系。运用主成分分析法(PCA)和逐步回归法对11项反映耕地非农化驱动因素的指标进行了实证研究并从中提取了三个公共驱动因子。结果表明:(1)推动我国耕地非农化的本质驱动力是非农用地需求因子、比较利益驱动因子和地方政府行为因子;(2)我国省际耕地非农化的空间分布具有明显的空间俱乐部特征并在区域格局上近似呈现出东西膨胀中部塌陷的"骨状"规律,因此要分区域制定耕地非农化应对策略。The change in the production structure of rural land is the fundamental incentive for trig- gering China＇s grain security risks and urban-rural spatial structure disorder. On the basis of sor- ting out the mainstream viewpoint of cultivated land conversion＇s driving forces, this paper con- structsa suitable cultivated land conversion driving system for our country. Principal component a- nalysis（ PCA ） and step-wise regression are used to make an empirical research for 11 driving in- dicators of cultivated land conversion and extract three common driving factors. The result shows： （1）during the period of 2001 -2013, the fundamental driving forces of our country＇s cultivated land conversion are non-agricultural land demand factor, comparative advantage driven factor and local government behavior factor. （ 2 ） the provincial spatial distribution of our country＇s cultivated land conversion has obvious feature of regional similarity and It approximately shows ＂ bone- shaped＂. Therefore, we should develop cultivated land protection strategies according to regional- features.

关 键 词：耕地非农化 驱动因素 主成分分析 线性回归 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]