基于Copula函数的韩江流域干支流洪水遭遇分析  

Copula Function-Based Flood Coincidence Probability Analysis for Mainstream and Tributary of the Hanjiang River Basin

作　　者：关帅[1] 林颖妍 查悉妮 丁波[1] 陶楠[1,2] 刘祖发[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心∥华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275 [2]广东省水利厅农村机电局,广东广州510635

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第5期130-137,共8页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379223)

摘　　要：韩江流域在广东省的经济社会发展中占有十分重要的地位,洪水特征的研究对韩江流域内的防洪与洪水规律的认识具有重要的意义。为此,利用Copula函数对韩江流域三大水文站1959-2000年的日流量进行分析,其中洪水特征由年最大日平均流量表示,然后对其进行了联合分布、量级组合遭遇概率和条件概率分析。主要结论为:1相同重现期洪水遭遇组合,潮安与横山遭遇的概率大于潮安与溪口,潮安与溪口遭遇的概率大于横山与溪口;2梅江的洪量占潮安站的比重比汀江大;3利用三大水文站的联合分布,获得了水文站之间不同流量条件下的概率,以及特定联合重现期和同现重现期下,不同水文站最大日流量的可能组合。The Hanjiang river has been played an important role in economic and social development in Guangdong Province. It is quite necessary to find out the characteristics,occurrences and the dynamic rule of flood along this river for flood control and protection. In this paper,daily streamflow data from three hydrological stations during 1959- 2000 were analyzed using the copula function to investigate the probability behavior of the flood coincidence in the Hanjiang river basin. The flood characteristics were defined as annual maximum daily flow,which were analyzed through the joint return periods,the coincidence risk of flood magnitudes and conditional probability. Obtained results showed： 1 during the same return period,the coincidence risk of flood magnitudes of Chaoan and Hengshan stations was bigger than Chaoan and Xikou stations,and that of Hengshan and Xikou is the smallest. 2 the flood of the Meijiang accounted for a larger proportion in Chaoan station than in the Tingjiang. 3 based on joint distribution of the three stations,diverse streamflow combination could be obtained under certain joint return periods and current return periods,as well as the probabilities of any streamflow combination.

关 键 词：多变量水文分析 COPULA函数 洪水遭遇 韩江流域 

分 类 号：TV121.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]