贫困地区农户脆弱性及其影响因素分析  

Households' Vulnerability and Determinants Analysis in Poor Areas

作　　者：杨龙[1] 汪三贵[2] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学公共管理学院,福建福州350002 [2]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年第10期150-156,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"我国特殊类型贫困地区扶贫开发战略研究"(编号:10ZD&025);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目"贫困地区农村金融干预对农户脆弱性的影响研究"(编号:14XNH077);清华大学中国农村研究院博士论文奖学金项目"贫困地区农户脆弱性与农村金融干预"(编号:201325)

摘　　要：农户脆弱性能够更为全面反映贫困地区农户的福利状态。采用预期贫困的脆弱性测量方法,在1 274元和2 300元两条贫困线下,首次利用具有全国代表性的中国农村贫困监测调查53 271个农户微观数据对贫困地区农户脆弱性进行测量,描述了脆弱农户的家庭特征和社区特征,分析了不同地形之下汉族和少数民族农户脆弱性的影响因素。研究发现,在1 274元和2 300元贫困线下,农户陷入未来贫困的平均可能性分别为15.20%、49.49%。脆弱性测量和贫困测量的结果存在较大差异。随贫困线标准提高,脆弱性测量与贫困测量的不一致程度增大。高度脆弱农户具有较大家庭规模、人力资本不足、病人数量多、抚养比高、资产价值少的家庭特征,且更可能分布在山区、革命老区县、陆地边境县和少数民族聚居村等特殊类型贫困地区。不同类型地区农户脆弱性的影响因素存在差异,但冲击性事件是主要影响因素。当年有建房或买房、有婚丧嫁娶大事、有子女上大学、有大病治疗情况、旱灾等冲击性事件是各个地区农户脆弱性的共性影响因素,家庭规模、人力资本状况和房屋价值也是影响农户脆弱程度的重要因素。根据研究结论,提出相应政策建议:第一,应将贫困测量和脆弱性测量方法结合起来进行贫困瞄准;第二,未来扶贫政策制定中更应关注特殊类型贫困地区的农户;第三,在贫困标准提高的情况下,减贫的同时还应注重降低农户的脆弱性,重点是减小冲击性事件对贫困农户福利的影响。Household vulnerability can describe household welfare comprehensively in rural poor areas. Based on the national representative China Poverty Monitoring Survey data,this paper measures the household vulnerability using vulnerability as expected poverty method under 1 274 RMB and 2 300 RMB poverty lines. This paper analyzed household and community characteristics,and determinants of household vulnerability in Han and ethnic minority districts. The conclusions are that average probabilities of household falling into poverty are 15. 20% and 49. 49% under 1 274 RMB and 2 300 RMB poverty lines. There is a big difference between vulnerability and poverty measurement. The difference is larger as poverty line increases. High vulnerable households usually have bigger family size,low human capital,more patients,high dependent ratio and less assets,tending living in mountainous areas,revolutionary base areas,frontier counties and ethnic minority areas. Determinants of household vulnerability in different type areas are different while shocks are the common determinants for vulnerable households. Building or buying houses,weddings,funerals,attending college,serious illness and droughts are the common determinants of household vulnerability. Household size,human capital and house value are also important determinants. This paper gives some suggestions on household vulnerability. Firstly,government should combine the poverty measurement and vulnerability measurement. Secondly,the poverty-reduction policies should focus on special type areas in the future. Thirdly,government should focus on reducing household vulnerability while poverty when poverty line increases,especially reducing the influence of shocks on household vulnerability.

关 键 词：脆弱性 扶贫监测数据 贫困线 冲击性事件 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济]