基于群决策层次分析法的海堤达标建设工程社会稳定风险评估  

Social Stability Risk Assessment of Seawall Construction Project Based on Group Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：孔杨 高爽[2] 吴鑫 吴玉敏[4] 张园媛[2] 孙伯明[2] 

机构地区：[1]南昌市水利信息中心,南昌330038 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 [3]南京市长江河道管理处,南京210011 [4]南京市江宁区水利局,南京211112

出　　处：《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第5期30-33,共4页Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：江苏水利科技重点项目(20130317);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2014B38014)

摘　　要：开展社会稳定风险评估对于保证水利工程建设的顺利实施具有重要意义.从工程项目社会稳定风险角度出发,研究提出了海堤达标建设工程的社会稳定风险评估方法,包括指标体系的构建、指标权重确定方法和指标风险等级.本文以某海堤达标建设工程为例进行问卷调查并应用此评估方法进行社会稳定风险评估,评价结果为该海堤达标建设工程社会稳定风险综合评价结果为1.68,对应社会稳定风险等级为较低风险,表明该海堤达标建设工程所造成社会稳定风险是较低的且可控的.最后针对综合评价结果提出了相应建议,以期为其他类似水利工程项目社会风险评估提供理论依据和参考.The social stability risk assessment is significant for ensuring the implementation of hydraulic projects.Based on the engineering project risk social stability theory,social stability risk assessment method of the seawall construction engineering is proposed,including the index system,index weight determination method and index level of risk.A case study of a seawall construction project illustrates this assessment method for social stability risk based on the questionnaire is feasible;and the seawall construction project social stability risk comprehensive evaluation result is 1.68,corresponding to a lower risk of social stability risk grade,meaning that social stability risk of this seawall construction project risk is low and manageable.Finally,some reasonable suggestions are put forward in view of the corresponding problem;we hope that this method is helpful for other similar social risk assessment of hydraulic projects.

关 键 词：风险评估 社会稳定 海堤建设工程 

分 类 号：TV51[水利工程—水利水电工程]