京津冀地区低碳经济发展路径研究  

The Study on Development Path for Low-carbon Economy in the Region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

作　　者：余晓泓[1] 张梦斯 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学应用经济系,北京100081

出　　处：《科技和产业》2015年第10期29-35,39,共8页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(13YJAZH122)

摘　　要：京津冀区域经济一体化是当前政策的讨论热点,从地理区位以及国家经济发展规划的角度,把京津冀地区作为一个整体进行研究,构建了京津冀地区的SD(System Dynamics)模型。并设计了自然发展型、经济持续高速发展型、能源节约型、碳税干预型、人口规模持续增长型、综合互补型等六种低碳经济发展路径。通过Vensim软件进行仿真模拟,对各路径的优缺点进行比较分析。选取了实际GDP、人口数量、不可再生能耗、碳排放量等四个变量,创新性地借用层次分析法的思想对六种路径进行了综合评价,结果表明综合互补型路径是京津冀地区低碳经济发展的最优路径。最后基于模拟结果,提出了京津冀地区低碳经济发展的适宜性策略。Regional economic integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is the current hot topic policy.Based on the perspective of geographical location and national economic development planning,this article regards the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as a whole,and build a System Dynamics（SD）model for the region.The paper designs six development path for low-carbon economy in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,including the path of natural development,the path of sustained and rapid economic development,the path of energy saving,the path of carbon taxes intervention,the path of population size sustained growth-oriented,the path of integrated complementary.All paths are simulated by the software Vensim.And the advantages and disadvantages of each path are comparatively analysized.Real GDP,population four variables,non-renewable energy consumption,carbon emissions are selected as indexes.Innovatively borrowing the thought of AHP,the paper evaluates these six paths.It shows that the path of integrated complementary is the optimal.Finally,based on simulation results,the paper raises some suitable policies suggestion.

关 键 词：京津冀地区 系统动力学 层次分析法 低碳经济路径 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]