山东省低碳经济发展研究--基于脱钩效应和面板协整分析  

Research of Low-carbon Economy Development in Shandong Province——Based on Decoupling Effect and Panel Cointegration of Analysis

作　　者：张一清[1,2] 刘传庚 白卫国 

机构地区：[1]山东能源经济协同创新中心,山东烟台264005 [2]山东工商学院工商管理学院,山东烟台264005 [3]东工商学院煤炭经济研究院,山东烟台264005 [4]国瑞沃德(北京)低碳经济技术中心,北京100053

出　　处：《软科学》2015年第10期48-52,共5页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13BGL108、14BJL106);国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAK15B04);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2011GL016);山东能源经济协同创新中心重大项目(2014SDXT001)

摘　　要：以17个城市2005~2013年的数据为样本,基于山东省及17个城市GDP增长与碳排放的脱钩效应,以及17个城市面板协整分析,研究山东省及17个城市碳排放特征。研究表明,山东省2006~2013年城市碳排放总体弱脱钩;17个城市碳排放量、实际GDP增加值和碳生产力之间存在着长期均衡关系;山东省及17个城市碳锁定效应较大,逐步通过技术和制度的改变解锁碳锁定成为低碳发展的关键;年均第二产业比重下降幅度、年均GDP增长和年均碳排放增长中,年均第二产业比重下降幅度起主导作用,山东省及17个城市应以产业结构优化为主要途径,通过技术进步、产品升级和财税优惠政策等措施,以及出台政策法规,促进产业转型升级发展低碳经济。Based on the sample data from 2005 to 2013 about the decoupling effect of GDP growth and carbon emissions,and 17 cities panel cointegration,this paper studies the carbon emissions characteristics of Shandong Province and 17 cities.Result shows that Shandong province has been overall weak decoupling from 2005 to 2013. Carbon emissions,real GDP added value and carbon productivity of 17 cities have been a long-term equilibrium relationship. Carbon lock-in effect is bigger,and the gradual change of unlock carbon technology and system lock becomes the key of low-carbon development. The proportion of second average annual growth rate of industrial decline plays a leading role in the proportion of second average annual growth rate of industrial decline,average GDP growth and annual carbon emissions growth. Shandong province and17 cities should be based on the optimization of the industrial structure as the main way,through technological progress,product upgrading and tax preferential policies and other measures,and the introduction of policies and regulations,promoting industrial transformation and upgrading for the development of low-carbon economy.

关 键 词：低碳经济 脱钩效应 面板协整 山东省 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F124.5