基于直觉模糊案例推理的应急物资需求预测模型  

An emergency supplies demand prediction model based on intuitionistic fuzzy case reasoning

作　　者：王兰英[1] 郭子雪[1] 张玉芬[2] 尚永胜[1] 张露[3] 

机构地区：[1]河北大学期刊社,河北保定071002 [2]河北大学数学与信息科学学院,河北保定071002 [3]石家庄财经职业学院会计系,河北石家庄050061

出　　处：《中国矿业大学学报》2015年第4期775-780,共6页Journal of China University of Mining & Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BGL089);河北省社会科学基金项目(HB14GL076);河北省人文社会科学重大攻关项目(ZD201439)

摘　　要：应急物资需求预测是应急物流管理的重要内容,是影响应急救援效果的关键环节,加强应急物流预测方法研究,对提升我国应急物流管理水平,提高突发事件的应急保障能力和应对效果具有重要现实意义和理论研究价值.为了提高预测精度,基于应急物资需求预测的特点,引入直觉模糊集来描述案例的不精确属性.在定义直觉模糊集的相似度基础上,构建了源案例的特征因素矩阵,提出了基于模糊案例推理的应急物资需求预测模型,通过算例分析验证了该方法的有效性.Emergency supply demand forecast is one of the key links in the process of efficient emergency rescue activities.To enhance the level of emergency logistics management and improve the emergency guarantee capability and the disposal effect,research on emergency supply demand prediction should be strengthened.To improve the prediction accuracy,the intuitionistic fuzzy sets were introduced in this paper to describe imprecise attributes of the cases.The similarity of intuitionistic fuzzy sets were defined,after which the characteristic factor matrix of source case was established,and the emergency supplies demand prediction model based on intuitionistic fuzzy case reasoning was constructed,finally the availability of the proposed method was verified by the numerical example analysis.

关 键 词：应急物资 需求预测 案例推理 直觉模糊集 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]