10～30d延伸期天气预报方法研究进展与展望  

Prospects and Progresses in the Research of the Methods for 10～30 Days Extended-range Weather Forecast

作　　者：杨秋明[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象科学研究所,江苏南京210009

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2015年第9期970-984,共15页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"SCGT与夏季东亚ISO相互作用研究及其在长江下游强降水延伸期预报中的应用"(编号:41175082)资助

摘　　要：10~30 d延伸期预报是国际大气科学关注的研究热点。这一时间段的预报对开展防灾、救灾工作具有极其重要的价值和意义,该工作需要结合初始气象条件、海洋、大气以及气候的影响因素,其中观测资料具有复杂性、综合性、全球性等,这些科学大数据反映和表征着复杂的自然现象与关系,具有高度数据相关性和多重数据属性,预测过程十分复杂。分析了延伸期预报的各种主流方法,其中重点介绍了动力模式、经典统计和大数据方法 3类预报方法的研究现状,并探讨了各种方法的优势和不足,在此基础上对目前延伸期预报领域存在的问题进行了讨论和总结。对延伸期预报方法的未来发展方向和应用前景给以展望。The 10 ~ 30 days extended-range weather forecast has attracted great attention from academic communities around the world,and this forecast plays a significant role in the decision-making process of disaster prevention and reduction. The extended-range forecast shall be combined with the initial meteorological conditions and influencing factors of ocean,atmosphere and climate,in which the observation data feature complexity,comprehensiveness and globalization. All of these scientific big data reflect and present complicated natural phenomena and relations,and are characterized by high data dependency and multiple data attributes,as well as extremely complicated forecast processes. Several methods involving extended-range weather forecast are analyzed from the numerical modeling,statistics and big data methods based on the intraseasonal oscillation and other methods,and the advantages and disadvantages of various types of prediction methods are also compared. Next,the scientific problems in the field of extended-range weather forecast are discussed and summarized. Finally,this paper gives a future prospective of the research for the methods of extended-range weather forecast and its applications.

关 键 词：延伸期预报方法 集合预报 统计预报 大数据预报 可预报性 

分 类 号：P456.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]