重庆王家沟小流域降水特性统计分析  

Statistical Analysis of Precipitation in Wangjiagou Cathment of Chongqing

作　　者：常宝[1] 张卫华[1] 靳军英[1] 魏朝富[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学资源环境学院,重庆400716

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第9期140-144,共5页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家"十二五"水专项(2012ZX07104-003)

摘　　要：利用Matlab软件分析了涪陵站31a月降水序列,检验了年降水量均值和方差,并对月降水量极值和超过值进行了分析,最后用dfittool对年降水量、月极值、月超过值进行了概率分布拟合.结果表明:对31a降水序列,均值和方差均无显著变化,且没有明显的趋势.年降水量服从对数正态分布,月极值服从广义极值分布,月超过值服从广义帕累托分布.以上结果可以为该流域水资源利用及水文预报、水循环提供科学依据.The monthly precipitation data of 31 years at Fulin Weather Station was studied with the software Matlab,the mean and variance of annual precipitation were tested,and its monthly extremes and exceedances were analyzed.Finally,by integrating dfittool,the probability distribution curves were fitted.The results showed that the mean and variance were stable and no clear trend was detected in annual precipitation data.The probability distribution for annual precipitation followed the log-normal distribution,monthly extremes followed the generalized extreme value（GEV）distribution and monthly exceedance followed the generalized Pareto distribution.The results can provide a scientific background for water resource utilization and hydrological forecast in the catchment.

关 键 词：王家沟小流域 降水 统计 检验 概率分布 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]