基于改进广义灰色关联度的河南省粮食生产影响因素分析  

Analysis of Factors Influencing Grain Production of Henan Province Based on Improving Generalized Grey Relational Grade

作　　者：杨铭[1] 刘青利[1] 

机构地区：[1]安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院,河南安阳455002

出　　处：《西南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第9期174-180,共7页Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2013BJJ033)

摘　　要：利用剩余法对河南省粮食生产波动进行分析,根据其波动情况将1990-2012年河南省粮食生产划分为2个阶段.然后采用改进的广义灰色关联度分析方法对两个阶段中10个影响因素进行了动态分析.结果表明:河南省的粮食生产总体呈增长趋势,但波动频繁,且具有阶段性变化特征;粮食单产、农田有效灌溉面积和农业机械总动力是河南省粮食生产的主控因素;农药和化肥对粮食增产的作用越来越大,但应注意环境保护,发展有机化肥和生物农药;耕地保护应严格执行,确保粮食播种面积.Fluctuation of grain production in Henan Province has been analyzed in the article in the residual method.The 1990-2012 grain production is divided into two stages according to its fluctuation.And then10 factors have been analyzed influencing grain production in two stages by means of the improved generalized grey relational analysis.The results show that the grain production of Henan Province shows a rising trend,but frequent fluctuation,and had stage variation characteristics;grain yield per unit area,effective irrigated area and the total power of agricultural machinery are the main controlling factors of grain production in Henan Province;the function of pesticides and fertilizers on the stable development of grain yield is growing,but should pay attention to environmental protection,and develop organic fertilizers and bio-pesticides;the protection of cultivated land should be strictly enforced to ensure that the grain sown area.

关 键 词：河南 粮食生产 改进广义灰色关联度 动态分析 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济] F326.11