盐城市土地利用变化碳排放效益及影响因素分解研究  

Research for decomposition results of impact factors about carbon emission by land use patterns in Yancheng City

作　　者：王亮[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,徐州220082 [2]盐城师范学院,盐城224051 [3]江苏沿海开发研究院,盐城224051

出　　处：《生态科学》2015年第5期122-128,共7页Ecological Science

基　　金：江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目(SZBF2011-6-B35);2015年度江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目(15KJD170002);江苏省2014年度高校哲学社会科学研究基金资助项目(2014SJB711);盐城师范学院校级科研项目(11YCKL005)

摘　　要：土地利用类型变化对碳排放产生重要影响。通过对盐城市的土地利用碳排放效益和分解因素进行分析,揭示区域土地利用碳排放差异及其主要影响因素,为本区域有针对性的改进土地利用方式、合理保护开发土地资源和协调区域人地关系,实现区域社会经济的可持续发展具有重要的现实指导意义。结果表明:盐城市土地利用总体上为碳源区,而且呈逐年上升态势。净碳排放总量从2002年的474.45万吨增加到到2012年的980.64万吨,排放总量合计增加了506.19万吨,增长了1.07倍,年均增长率为9.72%;其中建设用地为主要的碳源,占总碳排放总量均在90%以上,林地是主要的碳汇,占总碳排放总量均在40%—50%之间波动;在研究时段内,盐城市的建设用地平均碳排放量、地均碳排放量和人均碳排放量均呈现出上升趋势,在"十二五"期间实现碳减排的目标将更加艰巨;由于技术进步和产业升级等原因,单位GDP碳排放强度总体上呈现下降态势;根据LMDI模型对盐城市土地利用碳排放的影响因素分解发现,经济因素和人口因素对盐城市土地利用碳排放具有较强的正效应,土地利用结构因素和土地利用效率因素一定程度上抑制了盐城市土地利用的碳排放。最后从优化土地利用结构、提升土地利用和能源效率等角度,提出减少碳排放的途径。Land use change exerted important effects on carbon emission. The purpose of this paper was to analyze the characteristics of changes in land use in Yancheng City from 2002 to 2012, calculate and analyze the carbon emissions which was influenced by different land use types from 2002 to 2012 according to the assessment model of carbon emission, describe the decomposition results about impact factors of land use carbon emissions in Yancheng City from 2002 to 2012, keep the harmony relationship between human society and environment, and reach the goal of sustainable development of society. The methods included the assessment model of carbon emission, and Log Mean Divisa Method（LMDI）. The results showed that the general condition of Yancheng City was at the state of carbon sources. Carbon emissions increased most quickly in the city, from 474.45×104 tons in 2002 to 980.64×104 tons with an average annual growth rate of 9.72% during the study periods. Carbon emissions greatly varied over different land use types, in which the land for construction and cultivated land was considered as two major carbon sources. Woodland and water were two major carbon sinks. Carbon emissions from construction accounted for over 90% of the total carbon emissions, and carbon absorption from woodland varied from 40% to 50% during the study periods. Three indexes describing carbon emissions（carbon emission per unit area of land, carbon emission per unit area of construction land, and carbon emission per unit area of person） also showed the tendency of increase in the year of 2002 and 2012. Because of the technical progress and industry upgrade, the value of carbon emission per GDP showed the tendency of decrease in the year of 2002 and 2012. According to the decomposition of impact factors of land use carbon emissions in Yancheng City and LMDI model, compared with the base year, the structural factors and efficiency factors of land use to some extent inhibited carbon emissions from land use in Yancheng City. The cumulative contrib

关 键 词：土地利用变化 碳排放 LMDI因素分解法 盐城市 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]