偏好冲击、资本积累与中国产出波动  

Preference Shocks,Capital Accumulation and China Output Fluctuations

作　　者：吕风勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2015年第10期69-76,共8页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"促进房地产市场稳健均衡发展对策研究"(项目编号:09&ZD027);中国社会科学院创新工程项目"外部冲击;结构调整与宏观经济波动"

摘　　要：需求结构变动是导致产出周期波动的重要因素。笔者对货币效用模型(MIU)进行了修正,使之包含家庭、厂商和对外贸易三部门,并将单一生产部门扩展到包含耐用品和非耐用品两个生产部门,以研究消费者对耐用品和非耐用品偏好的改变所导致的需求结构变化。随后,笔者在动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)的框架下,应用数值模拟的方法,研究了消费偏好冲击对资本积累和劳动力供给所产生的不同影响,以及由此导致的产出波动情况。为了验证耐用品部门投资的增加是否会通过促进资本积累提高产出水平,笔者在文中还利用中国1979—2014年的数据进行了更深入的实证分析。研究表明:消费者偏好的改变,特别是对耐用品偏好的增强,是导致中国资本积累加速和资本形成占GDP比重上升,并最终促使中国经济保持了较长时期高速增长的重要因素;偏好冲击的易变性也会带来产出过度波动的隐患,特别是耐用品偏好的逆向变化,容易带来部分行业产能的严重过剩,诱致经济增速不断趋降。这一研究结论给予我们的启示是:应该注重但不能过度依赖耐用品需求拉动经济的作用。Changes in the structure of demand will lead to cyclical fluctuations in output. In this paper,Monetary Utility Model（ MIU） is expanded to contain both durable and non-durable production sectors from a single production sector in the context of three sectors including household,firm,and trade sector so as to study demand structural changes caused by durable and non-durable preference changes. Thereafter,based on the above DSGE model,the author explores the effects of shocks arising from consumer preferences on capital accumulation and labor supply which have caused fluctuations in output by the method of numerical simulation. Furthermore,the empirical analysis is conducted to verify the conclusion that the investment in durable goods sector will increase the output by promoting capital accumulation using yearly data from 1979 to2014 in China. These studies suggest that the changes in consumer preferences,particularly the enhancement of consumer preference for durable goods,will accelerate capital accumulation and increase the proportion of capital formation to GDP which has helped China maintain a long period of rapid economic growth. The volatility of preferences could also result in excessive fluctuations in output,and especially the adverse changes in durable preference will bring serious overcapacity and induce constant decreases in economic growth rate. This conclusion brings us the enlightenment that we should rely on but not overly depend on the role of durable goods demand in promoting economic growth.

关 键 词：DSGE 偏好冲击 需求结构 产出波动 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]