中国OFDI动机及其对外产业转移效应——基于贸易结构视角的实证研究  

Empirical Study on China's OFDI Motivation and Effects of Outward Industrial Transfer from Perspective of Trade Structure

作　　者：刘海云[1] 聂飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,430074

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2015年第10期73-86,共14页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"我国对外直接投资的产业转移效应及对策研究"(编号:14BJY088);华中科技大学研究生自主创新基金项目"中国对外直接投资的产业转移效应研究"(编号:0118310054)

摘　　要：本文将中国OFDI区分为顺梯度和逆梯度两种类型,并运用Heckman选择效应模型,结合2003-2012年间中国对113个国家的投资和贸易面板数据,分别估计了中国两类OFDI的动机和贸易结构效应,并据此判断对外产业转移效应的存在性。结果发现:中国顺梯度OFDI主要为资源寻求型,其目的在于获得发展中国家丰富的生产要素,降低生产成本;中国逆梯度OFDI主要为技术寻求型,其目的在于获得发达国家先进的生产技术,提高产出水平;中国顺梯度OFDI会引发初级产业向发展中国家转移,导致本国出口减少,进口增加;中国逆梯度OFDI则会有效提升国内制造业生产水平,增加出口规模,促进与发达国家的制造业内贸易;金融危机之后,中国通过OFDI对发展中国家的初级产业转移步伐加快,而与发达国家的制造业内贸易显著加强。最后,本文就实行差异化的投资策略和提高我国对外产业转移效率进行了相应的政策思考。This paper divides China＇ s OFDI into two types, namely path- wise OFDI and inverse OFDI, and uses Heckman selection model to estimate the motivation and trade structure effect of China＇ s two OFDI types by applying a panel dataset covering 113 countries with which China was in trade and invest- ment during 2003-2013. This is used to verify the existence or non-existence of international industrial transfer. The results show： （1） China＇ s path-wise OFDI is resource-seeking, whose purpose is to obtain abundant factors of production from developing countries and to reduce the production cost, while China＇ s inverse OFDI is technology-seeking, with a purpose to gain advanced production technolo- gy from developed countries and to raise the level of output; （2） China＇ s path-wise OFDI will cause primary industries to transfer to developing countries, resulting in its national export decrease and import increase, while China＇ s inverse OFDI will effec- tively enhancethe level of domestic manufacturing, increase the export scale and pro- mote intra-manufacturing trade with developed countries; （3） after the financial crisis, China accelerated the pace of transfer of primary industries to developing countries and strengthened intra-manufacturing trade with developed countries. This paper con- cludes by proposing suggestions on the implementation of differentiation investment strategies and improvement of OFDI efficiency.

关 键 词：对外直接投资 顺梯度 逆梯度 产业转移 贸易结构 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]