西藏人口城镇化进程及发展趋势预测  

Analysis on the Process and Trends of Urbanization in Tibet

作　　者：段玉珊[1] 王娜 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学社会与人口学院,北京100872 [2]西藏自治区党委党校,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《西藏研究》2015年第4期67-74,共8页Tibetan Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目"西藏藏族人口城镇化及其就业取向和特点研究"(项目批准号:12BMZ016)阶段性成果

摘　　要：西藏自治区成立以来,其人口城镇化先后经历了快速增长和连续波动时期,1990年后才逐渐趋于平稳发展。依据城镇发展阶段理论,当前西藏城镇化正处于发展缓慢的起步阶段,但具有后发优势。为进一步掌握未来西藏城镇化发展阶段的变化趋势,利用联合国预测法和相关分析法,对未来西藏人口城镇化水平进行了预测,结果显示:2030年之前西藏将一直处于人口城镇化的起步阶段,直到2030—2034年人口城镇化率达到30%后,进入快速发展的加速阶段。认清西藏长期处于城镇化发展初期的客观事实,同时制定合理的城镇化中长期发展规划,为未来城镇化的加速发展做好战略准备。Since the establishment of Tibet Autonomous Region,its urbanization process has undergone rapid development and consecutive fluctuation periods,then gradually entered a stationary period after 1990.According the theory of three phases of urbanization,the urbanization of Tibet has been in the initial stage which developed slowly,but has a lot of late-development advantage.In order to trace the trends of the stage of urbanization in Tibet in the future,this paper using the United Nation prediction method and correlation analysis method,predicts that the urbanization of Tibet will remain in the initial stage until 2030,then enter the acceleration stage between 2030—2034.Therefore,we advise that it is necessary to recognize the fact that the urbanization of Tibet will stay in the initial stage for a long time,and to devise reasonable medium for a long-term strategy to prepare for the acceleration stage of urbanization in the near future.

关 键 词：城镇化 城镇化进程 发展阶段 预测 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]