中国页岩气开发经济评价方法探索  

Appraisal methodology for shale gas projects in China

作　　者：孔令峰[1] 李凌 孙春芬[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气集团公司 [2]澳大利亚新南威尔士商学院 [3]中国石油规划总院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2015年第9期94-99,共6页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：近年来中国页岩气勘探开发取得了较大突破,但目前仍处于页岩气勘探开发早期阶段。与美国相比,中国页岩气资源禀赋、行业发展综合环境都有较大差距。页岩气开发生产特点与常规天然气不同,当前对中国页岩气井产能、产量递减规律和单井累积可采储量的认识还比较局限,需要探索针对性的经济评价方法,合理确定评价参数。实证研究四川盆地蜀南地区页岩气开发,初步探索页岩气开发水平井测试产量、初始产量、第1年平均日产量以及单井预测最终可采储量(EUR)之间的关系,在此基础上,提出以平台为单位开展页岩气开发项目经济评价的方法。China has made considerable progress in shale gas exploration and development in recent years but is still at the early stages. There are huge differences from the U.S. in the quality of shale gas resources and the industry development environment. The development and production of shale gas is fundamentally different from that of conventional gas, and Chinese understanding of shale gas well capacity, the declining output curve, and single well cumulative recoverable reserves is still comparatively limited; so an appropriate appraisal methodology for shale gas projects needs to be found, and a reasonable determination made of the key appraisal parameters. On-site data has been being gathered from the Shunan field in the Sichuan basin on initial horizontal development well test production rates, initial flow, first year average daily output and single well estimated ultimate recovery（EUR）, contributing to the basis for an appraisal methodology for shale gas projects.

关 键 词：页岩气开发 经济评价 评价方法 开发平台 内部收益率 单井产量 可采储量 平台投资 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]