全要素生产率能解释中国服务业增加值增长吗  

Can Total Factor Productivity Explan Value Added Services in China

作　　者：郭根龙[1] 杨慧芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西师范大学经济与管理学院,山西临汾041004

出　　处：《未来与发展》2015年第10期31-36,共6页Future and Development

基　　金：山西省人文社科重点研究基地项目"山西省生产性服务业发展的制度障碍及对策"(2011020)资助

摘　　要：本文通过采用丁伯根改进的C-D生产函数,并利用中国1993-2012年的历史统计数据,通过OLS回归模型,得出资本、劳动和全要素生产率对服务业增加值的贡献率,同时把得出的贡献率与第一、第二产业和国外的经验进行了横向对比。研究结果表明:全要素生产率对服务业增加值的贡献率偏低,整体低于其对第一产业和第二产业的贡献率。而且服务业全要素生产率入世之后虽然呈现出上升趋势,但2008年金融危机爆发后迅速下降。总之全要素生产率不能解释中国服务业增加值增长。其原因在于我国服务业增长主要还是靠资本、劳动的增长拉动而不是全要素生产率的提高。所以,在推进服务业长远发展战略时,应该注重服务业的转型升级,以创新为驱动,一方面注重传统服务业的升级;另一方面注重发展知识型、创新型等新兴服务业。Based on the historical statistical data from 1993~2012,the article obtain the acpital,labor and total factor productivity contribution rate for value added sercices by using Tinbergen improved CD production function and OLS regression model, simultaneously horizontal compare it with the primary industry, secondary industry and abroad experience. The results show that the TFP contribution to the low rate of the value added sercices, generally less than the parimary and secondary industries in the contribution rate. Although it shows a rising trend after joining the WTO, the total factor productivity decreased rapidly after the 2008 financial crisis,in short, TFP can not explain the service value growth in China. The reason is that the growth of China＇s service sector is mainly capital enhanced rather than labor enhanced. Therefore, to promote the service industry in the long-term development strategy, we should focus on the transformation and upgrading of the service sector and innovation-driven, on the one hand,we should focus on upgrading traditional services, the other hand,we should focus on the development of knowledge and innovative services.

关 键 词：服务业增加值 全要素生产率 贡献率 转型升级 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济]