城镇化过程中能源消费空间格局异质性  

The Spatial Pattern of China's Energy Consumption in the Process of Urbanization

作　　者：汪泽波[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2015年第6期3-11,共9页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"中国城市公共产品空间失配的纾解策略研究"(11BJY055);国家社会科学基金项目"高铁时代区域经济协调发展重点与支撑政策研究"(11AZD093)

摘　　要：随着城镇化建设快速发展,中国人均能源消费持续长,从2000年到2013年的13年间增长了2.4倍。利用2005—2012年省级面板数据,将空间计量与普通面板计量对比分析,发现省级人均能源费量存在着较强的空间相关性,人均能源消费表现为空间格局不均衡,且相对于人口城镇化率、人均GDP、第二产业增加值占GDP比重呈现倒U型增长,即随着三者的增加人均能源消费会出现一个峰值拐点。空间杜宾随机效应模型分析结果显示人口城镇化率达到55.19%、人均GDP达到85 234.90元、第二产业增加值占GDP比重66.13%时,人均能源消费会达到峰值。With the rapid development of urbanization in China,per capita energy consumption continues to grow,and has increased 2. 4 times from 2000 to 2013. The article uses the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2012,compares the analysis of the spatial econometrics with the ordinary econometrics,finds that China＇s provincial per capita energy consumption has a strong spatial correlation,the per capita energy consumption for the spatial pattern is not balanced. The relative population urbanization rate,per capita GDP and secondary industrial added value accounted for the proportion of GDP show an inverted ＂U＂type growth,which means the increase in per capita energy consumption will appear a peak inflection point. Space Durbin random effects model analysis results show that per capita energy consumption will reach a peak when population urbanization rate reaches 55. 19%,per capita GDP reaches 85 234. 90 yuan,and the secondary industrial added value accounts for 66. 13% of GDP.

关 键 词：能源消费 面板数据 空间计量 倒U型 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]