输电线路覆冰厚度短期多变量灰色预测模型研究  

Short-term Multi-variable Grey Model in Predicting Icing Thickness on Transmission Lines

作　　者：刘宏伟[1,2] 陆佳政[3] 赖旬阳 谭艳军[3] 徐勋建[3] 王银顺[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学新能源电力系统国家重点实验室,北京102206 [2]华北电力大学高电压与电磁兼容北京市重点实验室,北京102206 [3]湖南省电力公司科学研究院国家电网公司输变电设备防冰减灾技术实验室,长沙410007

出　　处：《高电压技术》2015年第10期3372-3377,共6页High Voltage Engineering

摘　　要：为了降低输电线路覆冰事故对电网安全造成严重的影响,对输电线路的覆冰厚度进行预测将能够有效地指导电网抗冰工作。采用了多变量灰色模型对输电线路的短期覆冰厚度进行研究,通过与实测数据的对比验证了该模型的准确性和适用性,并与传统的覆冰增长模型进行了对比。研究表明该模型可以有效地解决历史覆冰厚度观测数据相对较少的问题,为输电线路覆冰厚度的短期预测提供了新的途径;对于线路尚未覆冰,由天气预报得到的气象参数该模型也可以预测;该模型的预测效果优于传统的覆冰增长模型。在覆冰多发季节、多发地区,应用该预测模型能够更好的指导输电线路抗冰工作。Icing incidents on transmission lines may seriously impair power grid security, and we can guide the ice-resistant efforts effectively if the icing thickness on the transmission lines can be predicted. Therefore, we utilized a multi-variable grey model to predict the short-term icing thickness on transmission line. Its correctness and feasibility was verified by comparing with the test data. The comparison with traditional icing-increasing model was also carried out. The results reveal that the multi-variable grey model provide a new approach for short-term icing thickness prediction on the basis of lacking of historical test data of icing thickness; it also can predict even when the transmission line have not iced with the meteorological parameter from weather broadcast; its predictive effect is superior to that of traditional ic- ing-increasing model. This model can be utilized to guide the ice-resistant work effectively at district of icing area and icing seasons.

关 键 词：多变量模型 灰色模型 覆冰 重现期 输电线路 抗冰 

分 类 号：TM752[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]