WRF模式在江苏省沿海风能预报系统中的应用  

Application of WRF Mode in Wind Power Forecasting System in Jiangsu Coastal Area

作　　者：王彬滨 吴息[1] 余江[1] 周海[3] 许婷婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]四川电力设计咨询有限责任公司,四川成都610041 [3]国网电力科学研究院清洁能源发电研究所,江苏南京210003

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2015年第10期208-211,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：江苏省科技支撑计划(BE2010200);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206026);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：为研究WRF模式在沿海风能预报系统中的应用能力,以江苏省大丰市某70m高测风塔的2006年观测记录为例,基于4种不同近地面层-边界层参数化方案的组合,运用WRF模式分别模拟了该塔1、4、7、10月的逐小时风速,评估了不同近地面层-边界层参数化方案组合对沿海风电场轮毂高度风速的模拟效果,分析了WRF模式模拟沿海风电场风速的误差特征。结果表明,不同近地面-边界层参数化方案组合的总体模拟效果不同,MM5similarity近地面层和YSU边界层参数化方案组合的方案A效果稍好;4种参数化方案组合对秋、冬季节的风电场风速模拟精度都要明显好于春、夏季节,存在明显的季节性;WRF模式对海向风的模拟好于陆向风,且其模拟误差存在明显的方向性,沿海地区特殊的地形分布对其有显著的影响。Based on the observations in 2006 of 70 m height wind tower which is located in Dafeng City,Jiangsu Province,this paper applied 4kinds of collections of the surface layer parameterization schemes and boundary layer parameterization schemes through WRF mode to simulate per hour wind speed of the tower in four months of 2006.And then the wind speed simulation effects of different boundary layer parameterization schemes and the surface layer parameterization schemes in the coastal wind wheel hub height were evaluated.At the same time,the error characteristics of WRF simulation results in coastal wind farm were analyzed.The results show that the simulation effects of different parameterization schemes are significant difference.The scheme A with combination of MM5 similarity scheme and YSU scheme is better than others.The simulation effects in spring and summer are superior to those of autumn and winter.There is obvious seasonality.The results of sea wind are better than the land wind simulated by WRF model.The simulation errors have obvious directivity that is impacted by coastal terrain distribution which has a significant impact on simulation.

关 键 词：沿海 风速 近地面层参数化方案 边界层参数化方案 误差特征 WRF模式 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.7