基于计算实验的流感大流行预防策略  

Prenvention strategies for novel influenza pandemics based on computional experiments

作　　者：祖正虎[1] 许晴[1] 张斌[1] 徐展凯 郑涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]军事医学科学院生物工程研究所,北京100071

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第10期2513-2522,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(90924019;71403287);国家科技重大专项(2013ZX10004605);全军医学科技(13QNP156);病原微生物生物安全国家重点实验室开放研究基金(SKLPBS1433)

摘　　要：流感是人类健康的重大威胁之一.为探索预防新型流感大流行的有效策略,建立了北京市计算流行病模型,评估了边境口岸检疫,病例治疗,病例隔离,社会关系抗病毒预防以及免疫接种措施对四种新型流感大流行的预防效能.结果表明:边境口岸检疫对于预防新型流感大流行的作用非常有限;积极的病例治疗可预防传播能力类似于2009年A(H1N1)的新型流感大流行;高强度的病例治疗和病例隔离可预防传播能力类似于1957年A(H2N2)的新型流感大流行;对于传播能力类似于1918年A(H1N1)的新型流感,在高强度病例治疗和病例隔离的基础上须对病例的社会关系进行抗病毒预防才有可能预防大流行;而对于具有超级传播能力的新型流感(R_0>3.3),必须依靠有效的广谱疫苗才能预防大流行.研究结果对于进一步完善我国应对流感大流行的应急准备与处置计划具有参考价值.Influenza virus is one of major threats to human health. To explore effective strategies for prevention a novel influenza pandemic, the effectiveness of the prevention interventions including border quarantine, case treatment, case isolation, social-antiviral prophylaxis, and vaccination for four different influenza were computed based on the constructed computational epidemic model of Beijing. The main results were as follows： border quarantine could only play very limited role in preventing an influenza pandemic; for novel influenza virus with transmissibility similar to A（H1N1）/2009 virus, only positive treatment of cases could effectively prevent pandemic in local; for novel influenza virus with transmissibility similar to A（H2N2）/1958 virus, high intensity treatment of cases plus isolation of these treated cases could effectively prevent pandemic; for novel influenza virus with transmissibility similar to A（H1N1）/1918 virus, high intensity treatment of cases plus isolation of these treated cases and social-antiviral prophylaxis of treated cases could have a chance to prevent pandemic; for novel influenza virus with super transmissibility （Ro 〉 3.3）, only broad-spectrum vaccine with certain effectiveness could prevent pandemic. These results had significant value for further developing emergency preparedness plans to response a novel influenza pandemic in huge cities of China.

关 键 词：流感大流行 预防策略 计算实验 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]