微博舆论场：突发事件舆情演化分析的新视角  

Microblog public opinion field:A new perspective for analyzing evolution of the emergency opinion

作　　者：黄远[1,2] 沈乾[1,2] 刘怡君[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100190 [3]中国科学院自然与社会交叉研究中心,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第10期2564-2572,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71573247,91024010,91324009);中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所重大研究任务(Y201201Z06)

摘　　要：微博舆论场逐渐成为了突发事件网络舆情的策源地,在舆情生成演化中扮演重要角色.本文以微博舆论场为研究视角,首先运用超网络建模理论,构建了集社交、信息、心理、观点四层子场为一体的微博舆论场超网络模型,并对各层子场内部以及子场间关系进行建模分析;然后提出了微博舆论场超网络模型的衡量指标,对微博舆论场"场强"进行了量化分析;最后使用社会计算和数据挖掘算法,定量分析了微博舆论场对新进入的无知者和感染者的作用过程,以及对新个体发生作用后,微博舆论场中舆情的演化.以期对突发事件舆情态势进行预测预警,为舆情干预治理提供理论依据,有效引导突发事件舆情良性发展.Microblog public opinion field gradually becomes a hotbed of emergency online public opinion. It plays an important role in the formation and evolution of public opinion. This paper analyzes the formation and evolution of emergency public opinion from the research perspective of microblog public opinion field. First, using supernetwork modeling theory, building the microblog public opinion field supernetwork model on the set of social, informational, psychological, opinions subfield together, conducting model analysis on the relationship between internal and external subfields; then, proposing measurable index of microblog public opinion field supernetwork model, analyzing the intensity of microblog public opinion field for using the index; finally, using social computing and data mining algorithms, analyzing the process that microblog public opinion field affects the ignorant and infected and the evolution of public opinion in the microblog public opinion field after the process quantitatively. In order to predict and forewarn the trend of emergency public opinion, provide theoretical basis for intervention and governance of emergency public opinion, and guide the healthy development of emergency public opinion effectively.

关 键 词：微博舆论场 超网络 关联规则 SIMRANK 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]