考虑后悔规避的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法  

Risk decision making method for emergency response considering regret aversion

作　　者：袁媛[1] 刘洋[1] 樊治平[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学工商管理学院,沈阳110169

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第10期2630-2636,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71101020;71371002;71471032);中央高校基本科研业务经费(N120406003)

摘　　要：针对突发事件发展演变存在多种可能情景且实施不同应急方案时各情景发生概率不同的应急响应风险决策问题,基于后悔理论的思想,提出了一种考虑后悔规避的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法.在该方法中,首先分别针对突发事件造成的损失以及方案实施成本计算应急方案的效用值;然后,分别针对突发事件造成的损失和方案实施成本,计算各应急方案的后悔值,进而得到分别针对损失指标和方案实施成本的决策者对应急方案的感知效用;进一步地,将针对损失指标和方案实施成本的感知效用进行综合集成,得到应急方案的综合感知效用,并依据综合感知效用的大小确定应急方案排序.最后,通过一个算例分析说明了该方法的可行性与有效性.Aiming at risk decision making problem with multiple scenarios and different scenario probabilities, a method based on regret theory is proposed considering regret aversion of the decision maker. First, the utility of each alternative is calculated considering losses caused by the emergency event and costs of the alternatives respectively. Then, based on main idea of regret theory, regret value of each alternative is calculated considering losses caused by the emergency event and costs of the alternatives respectively, and perceiving utility of each alternative is obtained. Moreover, the overall perceiving utility of each alternative is calculated by integrating perceiving utilities considering losses of the emergency event and costs of the alternatives and a ranking of the alternatives is determined according to the overall perceiving utilities of the alternatives. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

关 键 词：突发事件 应急响应 风险决策 后悔规避 方案排序 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]