基于系统动力学的危化品水污染突发事件中网络舆情危机应急策略研究  

Emergency policy exploration for network public opinion crisis in water pollution accident by hazardous chemicals leakage based on systematic dynamics

作　　者：余乐安[1] 李玲[1] 武佳倩 汤铃[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第10期2687-2697,共11页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(91224001;71301006;71025005);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(ZY1320)

摘　　要：鉴于危化品强腐蚀性、剧毒等特性,其突发泄露事件,特别是水污染突发事件,将对人民生命安全和财产安全造成严重威胁,从而引发网络舆情危机.本文基于系统动力学,深入分析危化品水污染突发事件中网络舆情的扩散演化规律,以探索有效的危机应急策略.新模型包括网民子块、网媒子块和政府子块三个子模块,受到危化品水污染突发事件的直接影响,并影响着突发事件的发展演化.以五个危化品水污染突发事件为案例,实证研究验证并分析了仿真模型的有效性和实用性;在此基础上,对不同危机应急策略进行了模拟.政策仿真结果表明:提高官方新闻透明度、政府危机处理力度、政府响应效率能有效控制并引导网络舆情的扩散与传播.With the properties of corrosivity and toxicity, hazardous chemicals leakage, especially polluting water, may heavily threaten human life and property, leading to network opinion crisis. Based on system dynamics, this paper builds a novel simulation model to analyze the network public opinion diffusion mechanism in dangerous chemicals water pollution emergencies and to explore for effective emergency strategies. The novel proposed model includes the netizen sub-block, network media sub-block and government sub-block, directly affected by dangerous chemicals water pollution emergencies, and will affect the development of the emergencies. To test the effectiveness of the proposed model, five cases of water pollution accidents sparkled by hazardous chemicals leakage are introduced as study samples, and different emergency policies are simulated. The simulation results indicate that, enhancing the transparency of government public news, the capacity of the government crisis management and the effectiveness of government response policy can effectively control and guide the network public opinion diffusion.

关 键 词：危化品泄露 水污染 突发事件 网络舆情 系统动力学 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]