中国人口—经济—空间—社会城市化耦合协调的时空演变分析  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Analysis of the Coupling and Coordination Among Population, Economy, Space, and Urbanization

作　　者：蒋晓娟[1,2] 王月菊[3] 陈兴鹏[1,4] 张子龙[1,4] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院 [2]兰州交通大学建筑与城市规划学院,甘肃兰州730070 [3]兰州大学哲学社会学院 [4]兰州大学中国西部循环经济研究中心,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第5期63-71,共9页Journal of Lanzhou University（Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(14ASH003);国家自然科学青年基金(41301652);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20120211120026);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(Lzujbk-2015-147)

摘　　要：城市化是人口集中、经济增长、空间扩张和社会转变相互影响、相互作用的综合过程,只有四者之间相互促进、协同发展,才能达到可持续城市化的目的。文章基于耦合协调度模型,对中国31个省份的人口、经济、空间和社会城市化之间的耦合度和协调度进行了测度,从全国、八大区域和省域三个尺度分析了耦合度和协调性的时间演变轨迹,并利用R/S分析方法对时间演变的趋势性进行了分析,文章还利用GIS手段,就耦合度和协调性的空间差异、空间格局及其演变特征进行了研究,结果表明:中国人口、经济、空间和社会城市化之间的耦合关系呈现出低强度耦合、低水平协调状态,且耦合强度在不断降低,但协调水平不断提高,耦合度和协调性的时间尺度演变具有很强的持续性;耦合度的空间差异有所扩大,而协调度的空间差异在逐渐缩小,耦合度和协调性的空间格局基本可以划分为三种类型区,大部分地区属于低耦合强度、低协调水平或较低耦合强度、较低协调水平类型区,仅有少数经济发展水平高的地区协调水平较高。Urbanization is an integrated process of mutual influence and interaction, involving population,economic growth, spatial expansion and social transformation, whose mutual promotion and coordinated development are the goals of sustainable urbanization. Based on the coupling coordination degree model, the population, economy, space, and urbanization of thirty-one areas in China have been examined. Three dimensions： the whole nation, eight districts, and provinces, have been used in the analysis of temporal evolution patterns of coupling degree and coordination level, and the temporal evolution trend is predicted by using R/S analysis method; meanwhile, by using GIS method, spatial differences, spatial patterns, and evolution characteristics of coupling degree and coordination are studied. The results show that China＇s population, economy, space and urbanization present low coupling degree and low coordination level; although when the coupling degree tends to drop further, the coordination level tends to improve; and the time scale evolution of coupling and coordination demonstrates a strong sustainability. The results also show that the spatial difference of coupling degree widens while the spatial difference of coordination level narrows; the spatial pattern of coupling and coordination can be divided into three types based on the features of districts; most districts have low coupling degree and low coordination level or low coupling degree and comparatively low coordination level; only a handful of economically developed districts have high coordination level.

关 键 词：人口—经济—空间—社会 城市化 耦合度 协调性 时空演变 中国 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学] K902[历史地理—人文地理学]