基于风险分析的天然气管道工程工期计算研究  

Study on Schedule Calculation of Natural Gas Pipeline Project Based on Risk Analysis

作　　者：侯金桥 

机构地区：[1]中石油昆仑燃气有限公司,北京100101

出　　处：《石油工程建设》2015年第5期20-23,共4页Petroleum Engineering Construction

摘　　要：科学地分析和计算施工进度,对合理进行施工进度控制具有重要意义。结合天然气管道项目特点,在风险分析基础上对天然气管道项目工期计算方法进行研究。在强制评分法与层次分析法的基础上,建立了基于强制评分法的工期风险层次分析模型。通过在全概率条件下工期风险权重的计算,定义了工期风险权重与PERT网络时间参数关系的算法,建立了基于工期风险权重的PERT网络时间参数计算模型,应用蒙特卡洛方法求解。在上述工作的基础上,制订了完整的天然气管道工程工期风险分析流程,搭建了管道工程工期风险权重与工期计算的联系。Scientific analysis and calculation of project schedule are important to control reasonable construction schedule.This thesis studies the natural gas pipeline project schedule calculation method based on risk analysis and combined with the characteristics of natural gas pipeline project.On the basis of FD method and AHP method,it establishes the duration risk analytic hierarchy model.Through the calculation of activity duration risk weights which under total probability conditions,the algorithm of duration risk weight and PERT network time parameters is defined,thus the model of PERT network time parameters based on the schedule risk weights is set up,and the Monte Carlo method is applied.Based on the above work,the integrated activity duration risk analysis process of route engineering in natural gas pipeline project is worked out.The relation of pipeline project duration risk weight and schedule calculation is structured.

关 键 词：风险 天然气管道 工期计算 蒙特卡洛方法 PERT 

分 类 号：TU722[建筑科学—建筑技术科学] TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]