手足口病疫情预测预警模型研究进展  

Advances in study on the prediction and alert models of hand,foot and mouth disease

作　　者：杨仁东[1] 胡世雄[2] 曾小敏[1] 彭小宁[3] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学公共卫生学院,湖南长沙410078 [2]湖南省疾病预防控制中心 [3]湖南师范大学医学院

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2015年第11期1399-1402,共4页Practical Preventive Medicine

基　　金：中华预防医学会资助项目(20101801);湖南省科学技术厅科技计划项目(2011FJ3137)

摘　　要：手足口病是影响学龄前儿童的主要传染病之一,早期的预测预警可以为疫情防控措施提供重要的参考,意义重大。本文介绍了国内用于手足口病疫情预测预警的主要模型,包括动力学模型、差分自回归移动平均模型、空间统计学、灰色预测模型及其他模型,指出了主要模型的优缺点,为手足口病疫情预测预警模型的选择和发展方向提供参考依据。Hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） is one of the major infectious diseases which occur in preschool children. Early prediction and alert of infectious diseases can provide a significant reference for the prevention and control measures. In this paper, we introduce and point out the advantages and disadvantages of the main HFMI） prevention and alert models which includ- ed dynamic model, ARIMA model, spacial analysis, grey prediction model and other models and applied in our country so as to provide information and advice for selecting and developing prevention and alert models of HFMD.

关 键 词：手足口病 预测 预警 模型 研究进展 

分 类 号：R512.5[医药卫生—内科学]