多个医生环境下考虑取消预约的门诊预约策略  

Outpatient appointment policy with multiple physicians considering cancellation of appointment

作　　者：曹萍萍[1] 唐加福[2] 姜博文[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国刑事警察学院基础教研部,辽宁沈阳110854 [2]东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院,辽宁大连116025 [3]东北大学流程工业综合自动化国家重点实验室,辽宁沈阳110819

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2015年第5期607-618,共12页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家创新研究群体科学基金资助项目(71021061);辽宁省社会科学基金资助项目(L14CGL042)

摘　　要：针对在多个医生的医疗环境下具有两类预约患者(提前预约患者和当天预约患者)的门诊预约问题,在考虑提前预约患者可能存在取消预约行为的情形下,提出了一种用于决定是否接受提前预约患者的预约请求的门诊预约策略.以医院的期望收益最大作为决策目标,建立了存在取消预约情形的门诊预约问题的马尔科夫过程模型(期望收益模型);将该模型进行等价转化并给出了相关性质;证明了对于任意的提前预约时段,均存在对应于每个医生的提前预约患者的最优数量,进而给出了该门诊预约问题的最优预约策略以及确定该策略的精确算法;数值仿真验证了所提出预约策略的适用性和有效性.For the outpatient appointment problem with two kinds of multiple-physician which includes ap- pointments in advance and on the same day, considering the situation where patients who make appointments in advance may cancel their appointments, an optimal appointment policy is presented to determine whether one request is accepted. With maximizing the expected revenue of the clinic as decision-making objectives, the Markov process model （the expected revenue model） considering cancellation of appointment is constructed. Then, the model is translated into an equivalent model and the relevant nature is given. For each physician, the existence of the optimal number of patients who make appointments in advance is proved for any appointment period, and the optimal appointment policy and algorithm for solving the policy are given. Finally, a numerical simulation verifies the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed capacity allocation policy.

关 键 词：门诊预约 取消预约 预约策略 马尔科夫过程 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]