宝鸡市手足口病移动百分位数法预警界值优选分析  

Study of early detection for hand-foot-mouth diseases by moving percentile method in Baoji City

作　　者：陈小英[1,2] 张义[1] 金艳[3] 刘峰[1] 王林江[1] 李广智[1] 陈飒[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省疾病预防控制中心 [2]陕西省宝鸡市疾病预防控制中心 [3]68210部队门诊部

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2015年第5期34-36,共3页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的采用移动百分位数法开展宝鸡市手足口病预警界值分析,确定手足口病的预警界值,提高传染病预警效率和能力。方法利用宝鸡市2010-2014年手足口病疫情数据建立数据库,采用移动百分位数法建立预警模型,通过计算灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值和阴性预测值及绘制ROC曲线,优选宝鸡市手足口病最佳预警界值。结果综合平衡预警的灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值等指标后,将P65作为宝鸡市手足口病的预警界值。结论宝鸡市手足口病预警界值可适当降低,提高预警系统的灵敏度,及早发现聚集性疫情,采取有效控制措施,防止暴发疫情的发生。因此,传染病预警界值的设定应根据传染病发病特点并结合当地疫情信息进行优选,以提高传染病疫情监测的预警能力。Objective To select the premium alert threshold of hand-foot-mouth disease in Baoji City by using the moving percentile alert technique based on the local disease information, and improve the early detection capability and efficiency of infectious diseases. Methods The alert data were based on the report of hand-foot-mouth diseases from 2010 to 2014 in Baoji City, the moving percentile method was used to detect the outbreak or epidemic. The calculation of the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and ROC,was to determine the the best alert threshold value for HFMD. Results After comprehensively considering the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and ROC, the best alert threshold value was determined as P65. Conclusions The early warning critical value for HFMD in Baoji City can be reduced to improve the sensitivity of the early warning system, to earlier discover the clustering cases, and take effective measures to prevent outbreak. Therefore, the determination of the alert threshold value should be on the basis of the features of the infectious diseases and the epidemic information, so as to promote the early warning capability.

关 键 词：手足口病 移动百分位数法 预警界值 

分 类 号：R512.5[医药卫生—内科学]