易灾牧区红原县雪灾预警气象因子主成分分析  

Principal Component Analysis for Early Warming Snow Disaster of Meteorological Factors in Pastoral Area of Hongyuan,Sichuan

作　　者：杨秀梅[1] 曾华[2] 李洪泉[2] 孙启忠[3] 石金花 邱高林 吴琦[2] 杜寒晖 冯敬琪 刘刚[2] 杨龙 

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学,四川雅安625000 [2]四川省草原科学研究院,四川成都611731 [3]中国农科院草原研究所,内蒙古呼和浩特010010 [4]四川省金川县勒乌乡畜牧兽医站,四川阿坝624100 [5]四川省红原县气象局,四川红原624400

出　　处：《草业与畜牧》2015年第5期29-33,共5页Pruataculture & Animal Husbandry

基　　金：国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项--易灾牧区饲草饲料战略性储备体系建设研究与示范项目-牧区饲草饲料资源开发利用技术研究与示范资助

摘　　要：红原县冬春两季雪灾发生频繁,对当地畜牧业生产危害极大。本文通过分析2004-2013年10次典型的雪灾记录,用线性回归分析的方法比较雪灾前一年、前一月、前十日和前五日各气象因子与降雪量的相关关系,确定了雪灾前十日的气象因子与降雪量的相关性最大,其R2=0.98。雪灾前十日气象因子及其变化直接关系到雪灾的发生和严重程度。利用主成分分析近30年的118次典型降雪记录,结果表明：Xc3（雪灾前十日日均最低温度）、Xc2（雪灾前十日平均温度）、Xc10（雪灾前十日最高温度变化）、Xc7（雪灾前十日日均日照时数）、Xc11（雪灾前十日风速的变化）和Xc4（雪灾前十日平均最高温度）是6个主成分。此结果对建立雪灾前气候判别及预警等应用模型都有重要的意义。Snow disaster occurred frequently in both spring and winter in Hongyuan County, Sichuan province. It destroyed the local forage and livestock system hardly. In this research, Linear regression analysis be used to comparing the relationship between snowfall and meteorological factors for 5 different time period during the recent 10 years （from 2004 to 2013） , such as the previous year, a month before, 10 days before and 5 days before. As a result, Identified the climate factors of ten days before had highest correlation index （R2=0.98） with snowfall. Climate factors before ten day of snowstorm and their changes directly related to the occurrence and severity of the snowstorms. Analyzed the ten days climate factors before snowstorms including 118 samples during the recent 30-year, used the principal component analysis to confirm main factors in meteorological factor system. The result show 6 principal components in the ten before snowstorm systems, include Xc3 （daily mean minimum temperature）, Xc2 （daily mean temperature）, Xc10 （maximum temperature changes）, Xc7 （daily sunshine hours）, Xc11 （windy speed changes）, and Xc4 （daily mean maximum temperature）. The found can be use as a statistic method for climate data in creating models for snow disaster early warming.

关 键 词：气象因子 雪灾前十日 灾前预警 主成分分析 红原 

分 类 号：S812.8[农业科学—草业科学]